Free tool

Closing line value calculator

Enter the odds you took and the closing odds of the sharpest market for every outcome. We remove the margin with the power method and tell you how much you beat (or missed) the fair close by.

What closing line value tells you

The closing price is the market's final, best-informed estimate. If you regularly take prices above the fair closing price, you're finding value before the market does, and that is the best-known predictor of long-run profit. A single result tells you almost nothing; CLV over a few hundred bets tells you a lot.

How it's calculated

CLV = odds taken ÷ fair closing odds − 1

Example: you took 2.20. At kick-off the reference market was 2.00 on your side and 1.87 on the other. Without the margin the fair closing odds are about 2.07, so your CLV is about +6%. Against the raw closing price (with margin) it would look like +10%, which flatters you: always compare with the fair price.

Tips

Use the sharpest market's closing odds, just before the start, for exactly the same line.
Use both sides (or all three in 1X2) so the margin can be removed properly.
Average your CLV over many bets; one bet means nothing. Read CLV explained.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a good CLV?

Anything consistently above zero against the fair close is good; +2% to +5% on average over hundreds of bets is excellent.

Why remove the margin?

Because the closing price includes the bookmaker's margin. Comparing with it makes your CLV look better than it really is.

Can I have positive CLV and still lose?

Yes, over short periods. CLV measures the quality of your prices; results also depend on variance.

Keep reading

Closing line value (CLV) explainedWhat closing line value is, why it predicts long-run results better than profit, how to calculate CLV against the fair close and what good CLV looks like.Read →No-vig calculator: fair odds & EVStrip the bookmaker's margin to get the fair odds, the true probability and the expected value (EV) of your bet. Power and multiplicative methods, 2 or 3 outcomes.Read →Kelly criterion calculatorFree Kelly criterion calculator for value bets: enter your odds, the fair odds and your bankroll to get your stake with full, half or quarter Kelly.Read →Dropping odds: what they mean and how to use themWhat dropping odds are, why odds drop and how to use them: compare with the fair price, find bookmakers that haven't moved, measure it against the close.Read →