What the results mean
- Total implied probability: the sum of 1 ÷ odds for every outcome. Fair prices would add up to 100%.
- Overround (vig): the excess over 100%. The bookmaker's margin expressed on the probabilities.
- Hold: the share of all the money wagered that the bookmaker keeps if bets are balanced. It equals overround ÷ (1 + overround).
- Payout: 1 ÷ the total, the share of money that goes back to bettors.
- Fair odds: the prices once the margin is removed with the power method. Details in the no-vig calculator.
Examples
| Market | Total implied | Overround | Hold | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −110 / −110 (US spread) | 104.76% | 4.76% | 4.55% | 95.45% |
| −150 / +130 (moneyline) | 103.48% | 3.48% | 3.36% | 96.64% |
| 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60 (football 1X2) | 104.81% | 4.81% | 4.59% | 95.41% |
Take the football market: 1 ÷ 2.10 + 1 ÷ 3.40 + 1 ÷ 3.60 = 0.4762 + 0.2941 + 0.2778 = 1.0481. The overround is 4.81%, the hold is 0.0481 ÷ 1.0481 = 4.59%, and the payout is 95.41%.
Vig, juice, margin, overround, hold
They all describe the fee that's built into the price. Vig and juice are the American terms, margin and overround the European ones. Overround and hold are two ways of expressing it: at −110/−110 the overround is 4.76% and the hold is 4.55%. The full explanation is in what is the vig.
How to use it
- Compare the margin of the same market at different bookmakers: lower is better.
- Use the lowest-margin market you can find as the reference for fair odds.
- Check what the margin does to your bet: at a 4.55% hold, a 50% bet is a −4.55% bet unless you find a better price.
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