Alert results
Every alert BetTheDrop sends is followed until kick-off and measured against the reference market's fair closing price. All of them, last 30 days: none are left out.
+65.6 uunits of expected value at 1 unit per alert
+€656expected value at €10 per alert
+€1,619expected value with ¼ Kelly from a €1,000 bank (max 5% a bet)
1,115alerts measured
+5.9%average edge of the pre-drop price over the fair close
+9.7%average edge on drops of 20% or more (434 alerts)
Updated 14/10/2026 01:09 UTC · Last 30 days
How we measure it
Each alert is valued at the price available before the drop, the one slower bookmakers may still be offering when it reaches you, against the fair closing price. That gap is the expected value (CLV), counted at 1 unit per alert.
The rule is simple: only bet if your bookmaker pays more than the fair price shown in the alert.
This is expected value, not actual winnings: individual bets vary a lot and you can lose money even on +EV bets. Past results don't guarantee future ones.
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