How to use it
- Average odds: the typical decimal odds you bet at.
- Your edge: your expected value per bet in percent, for example the average EV of your tracked bets.
- Number of bets: how many bets you're looking at, past or planned.
Why a few hundred bets prove almost nothing
At odds of 2.00 with a real edge of 3%, 500 bets are expected to make +15 units, but the typical swing is about ±22 units. 95% of results fall between roughly −29 and +59 units, and about one time in four you'd be losing money after 500 bets despite the edge. It takes around 4,300 bets before a 3% edge at those odds shows with 95% confidence.
| Odds | Edge | Bets | Expected | 95% range | Chance of profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 3% | 500 | +15.0 u | −28.8 → +58.8 u | 74.9% |
| 2.00 | 3% | 2,000 | +60.0 u | −27.6 → +147.6 u | 91.0% |
| 3.00 | 3% | 500 | +15.0 u | −47.4 → +77.4 u | 68.1% |
Longer odds swing more: at 3.00 the same edge needs about twice as many bets to show.
Why closing line value converges faster than profit
Profit depends on which bets happen to win; closing line value only depends on whether your price beat the fair closing price. That makes CLV a much faster signal of a real edge: see closing line value and the CLV calculator.
What it can't tell you
The calculator assumes your edge is real and the same on every bet. If your edge estimate is wrong, the range is wrong too. Use it to set expectations and stakes, together with sensible bankroll management.