What is line shopping?
The same bet, on the same match and the same line, is priced differently by different bookmakers. Line shopping is the habit of checking those prices and placing the bet where it pays the most. 'Line' can mean the price (odds) or the handicap or total itself; with a spread or total you shop for both.
How much is it worth? A worked example
Say you reckon a team has a 52% chance of winning. At −110 (1.909 in decimal) the bet needs 52.38% to break even, so it is slightly negative. Another bookmaker offers −105 (1.952), which breaks even at 51.22%:
| Price | Break-even probability | EV at a true 52% | Expected result over 500 bets of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −110 (1.909) | 52.38% | −0.7% | −364 |
| −105 (1.952) | 51.22% | +1.5% | +762 |
Five cents of difference turned a losing bet into a winning one, with no change in your prediction. That's the power of line shopping: it moves your break-even point. It also explains why the margin matters so much.
Best price vs fair price: the same example in a football market
Suppose the fair odds of the home win are 2.173 and five bookmakers show these prices (illustrative numbers). Each price is worth a different edge:
| Bookmaker | Home win odds | Edge against fair 2.173 |
|---|---|---|
| A | 2.18 | +0.3% |
| B | 2.20 | +1.2% |
| C | 2.24 | +3.1% |
| D | 2.26 | +4.0% |
| E | 2.30 | +5.8% |
The spread between the best and the worst price is 5.5 percentage points of expected return on the same bet. Without a fair price you'd know E is better than A, but not that A has almost no value at all. Line shopping tells you where to bet; the fair price tells you whether to bet.
Spreads and totals: shop the number too
With handicaps and totals the line itself differs between bookmakers, not just the price: one offers over 2.5 goals at 1.95, another over 2.75 at 2.05. They're different bets with different probabilities. Convert them to the same line or use the no-vig calculator on both sides of each line before comparing. In sports where certain margins are far more common than others (3 and 7 points in American football), half a point of line can be worth more than a few cents of price.
A simple line shopping routine
- Decide the bet first, from your own analysis or from a value alert.
- Open your bookmakers' prices for exactly that selection.
- Place it at the best one, as long as it is above the fair price.
- Note the price you got and, later, the closing price: that's your CLV for the bet.
- Every month, check which bookmakers gave you the best price most often and keep funds there.
How to line shop properly
How to line shop properly
- Have several accounts. Three or four bookmakers cover most of the benefit.
- Check the exact same selection. Same match, market, period and line. −1 and −1.25 are different bets.
- Compare the price, not only the line. A handicap of −0.5 at 2.05 is not the same as −0.25 at 1.90.
- Compare against the fair price. The best price on offer can still be below fair value. Use the no-vig calculator to see.
- Move quickly. Prices change; the best one when you looked may be gone when you place the bet.
Line shopping and value betting
Line shopping finds the best price among the bookmakers you use. Value betting goes one step further: it compares that price with a fair price estimated from the sharpest market, so you also know whether the best price is worth taking at all. A dropping odds alert is exactly that comparison, delivered when the sharp price moves; see how to find value bets.
Mistakes to avoid
- Comparing odds from bookmakers with different rules for the market (extra time, walkovers, dead heat).
- Taking the highest price on a long shot without checking that it isn't a typo or a stale price.
- Chasing small differences with very small stakes: costs and time matter too.
- Forgetting that bookmakers can limit accounts that always take the best price.