Are dropping odds profitable? An honest answer

The short answer

Betting a dropped price has no edge. Betting a price that hasn't dropped yet can. When the sharp market cuts a price, the new, lower price already contains the news and the bookmaker's margin. The opportunity is at bookmakers that still show the old, higher price: for a short time they can be paying more than the bet is now worth.

Where the profit would come from

1. The sharp market moves because of informed money or news.
2. A slower bookmaker keeps its old price for a while.
3. You take that price if it's above the new fair price.
4. Over many bets, the extra you were paid compounds into profit.

That is closing line value: the price you took against the fair price at kick-off. Positive CLV, repeated over hundreds of bets, is the best-known sign of a real edge.

Why it often doesn't work

• The old price is gone. By the time you see the drop, many bookmakers have already copied it. This strategy is a race, and being second means no value.
• You bet the wrong price. Taking the dropped price instead of a slow bookmaker's old price removes the edge. See the rule in dropping odds explained.
• Thin markets. Drops on markets where the reference bookmaker accepts small stakes can be noise, not information.
• Limits. Bookmakers can restrict accounts that regularly take stale prices, so how long you can keep placing the bets is itself a variable.
• Variance. Even a real +5% edge produces long losing runs; see the numbers in expected value betting.

What to measure

Three numbers decide whether a dropping odds strategy works for you:

• Your CLV: the price you took against the fair closing price, averaged over many bets. This is the main metric; results alone take years to read.
• How often the old price is still there: the share of alerts where your bookmaker still paid more than the fair price when you got to it.
• Sample size: hundreds of bets before drawing any conclusion.

How BetTheDrop measures alerts

Every alert BetTheDrop sends is followed until kick-off and valued against the fair closing price. The figures below are expected value, the edge of the price before the drop, over the last 30 days:

Expected value against the fair closing price, not actual winnings: you can lose money even on +EV bets. How we measure it.

Read this carefully: this is the edge of the price before the drop, which only exists where a bookmaker still offers it. Your real edge is the price you actually get against the fair close, often smaller and sometimes zero. That's why every alert shows the fair price and why you should only bet when your bookmaker pays more than it. Full details in alert results and our methodology.

The size of the edge, and how fast it decays

Take a price that falls from 2.31 to a fair 1.97. A bookmaker still showing 2.31 is paying 17.3% over the fair price. One that has moved to 2.20 is paying 11.7%; at 2.00 it's 1.5%; at 1.90 it's below fair. The edge exists, but it decays with every bookmaker that catches up (see steam moves). A realistic long-run average is far below the best case: in the CLV guide +2% to +5% is already a solid edge.

A four-week test you can run yourself

1. Pick a filter: for example drops of 15% or more in your main sports.
2. For every alert, record the price your bookmaker actually offered when you looked, even if you didn't bet.
3. Afterwards record the fair closing price (the closing line of the reference market, margin removed) and compute the CLV for each.
4. After 100 alerts compare: the share where your bookmaker was above the fair price, and the average CLV of the ones you could have taken.
5. If that average is clearly positive and stable, the strategy fits your bookmakers. If not, the limit is your bookmakers, not the alerts.

A realistic way to use dropping odds

A realistic way to use dropping odds

1. Follow only drops that meet a minimum size and a market where the reference accepts real stakes.
2. Check your bookmaker's price on exactly the same line against the fair price.
3. Bet only above your minimum edge, with small fixed stakes or a fraction of Kelly.
4. Track every bet and review CLV monthly, not profit daily.

More in dropping odds strategy.